Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
