Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
